As the new government finds its rhythm, Sir Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper are putting their most serious faces on to discuss immigration.
They have promises to live up to… in the run-up to their election victory, Sir Keir blasted “sky high” post-Brexit immigration and told the Sun on Sunday (of course) “Read my lips — I will bring immigration numbers down… control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first”. A familiar refrain from a British Government, if not a Labour one. It was all about a “bonfire of controls” back in Tony Blair’s day, when the huge acceleration in UK migration began. Boris Johnson also promised to “take back control of our borders” with Brexit, but major increases in legal and illegal migration followed instead.
The new government has delivered on setting up a new UK Border Security Command (BSC) to enhance security and tackle organised criminality around trafficking and scrapped the expensive and controversial Rwanda plan. Against this background, what should businesses, still worried about skill shortages and employment costs, expect?
Pressure to act
Since 2024’s election, we have had riots, ostensibly fuelled by public dismay at immigration issues, a major immigration fraud scandal has just broken, and now, statistics that bear out the numbers. The latest official quarterly migration statistics were released at the start of September. They show the annual picture up to almost the end of previous government’s time in office.
Headline points are:
- 4 million passenger arrivals into the UK, 11% more than the preceding year. This includes all documented entries to the UK, including British citizens.
- 16 million visas were granted in the work, study and family routes.
- Within this, work and study visas numbers have fallen, probably due to the Conservative Governments’ tightening up of the categories having previously relaxed them - but they are still 61% higher than before the pandemic.
- 4 million entry clearance visas were granted, 62% of which were visit visas.
- 38,784 illegal migrants who actually arrived were detected. The real figure will be much higher.
‘Bad’ immigration news headlines as parliament returns are ratcheting up the pressure on ministers. A BBC investigation into an unlicenced ‘visa agent’ operating in the West Midlands found substantial evidence of fraud, with victims being charged tens of thousands of pounds for invalid Certificates of Sponsorship and left destitute. Government suspicions that the international student route is used as a trojan horse for those who plan to switch shortly after arrival into lower-paid work routes, especially in the care industry, are borne out by the numbers, and by stories like this. The previous government’s relaxation of care worker visa thresholds in 2022 appears to have opened the door to the fraud.
Despite the severity of last-gasp restrictive measures imposed on business and employment immigration to reverse the trend in the last months of Rishi Sunak’s Government, we have to expect more from its successor.
What is coming up?
First, Labour needs to secure credibility with business by fixing the things that don’t work properly, but also miss the headlines:
- Severe delays in securing annual and in-year Certificate of Sponsorships, with an absurdly over-subscribed paid-for post-licence priority service that is overwhelmed within seconds of opening each day.
- Errors in Appendix Skilled Occupations of the Immigration Rules whereby multiple “going rate” thresholds are incorrect, and in many cases, too high. The Home Office has admitted this within the last few days and the rules will be amended – again – soon. In the meantime, sponsors should check the amended guidance carefully to identify the correct thresholds.
- Technical errors blocking some Biometric Residence Permit holders from registering for and obtaining digital sttaus as part of the transition to “digital by default” eVisas: see [link to ‘Digital by Default’ - Replacing your BRP before the end of 2024: Update and FAQs ]
This requires training and redeployment of internal resources and, as the government keeps reminding us, there is a deficit in its inherited budget. We are still waiting to see effective action.
Helping businesses to “hire Brits first”?
A phrase that sounds more Nigel Farage than Sir Keir Starmer. Granted, making it more difficult and expensive to hire non-settled workers is one way to “help” business hire from the resident workforce. But are there enough suitably skilled and experienced people for the jobs the economy needs? The last government’s eventual eye-watering hikes in going rate salary thresholds, arguably overdue but still sudden and disruptive in effect has already cut down supply, and is the most dramatic change in business immigration since the stealth liberalisations used to smooth the passage of Brexit.
So, what is Labour’s plan to counter the impact on business?
The Skills England Bill was announced in the King’s Speech. The brief of Skills England will be to work with employer organisations and the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) to monitor the UK’s skills and training needs, and to liaise with Department for Education.
Beyond this, the MAC has been briefed to work in partnership with other government agencies and departments rather than just produce reports in isolation, and to identify priority sectors for the government’s industrial strategy. The stated aim is to reduce reliance on immigration, boost skills and training in the settled workforce and enable a more agile response to changing economic and labour market conditions. We will work to reduce the need for international recruitment, boost per-capita growth, and ensure quick responses to changes in the labour market.
There is still a lack of detail – employers will want to see, and have input into, the structure of this “help” before further immigration is made more difficult and expensive still.
Free movement and the EU
There was a flurry of speculation as Sir Keir Starmer met Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz to work through a trade deal with Germany, share resources on tackling illegal migration and positively “reset” the UK’s relationship with Europe after a bruising Brexit.
The speed with which the PM ruled out any talk of reversing Brexit, or reintroducing any element of free movement, was notable. In particular, he dismissed the idea of a mutual short-term Youth Mobility arrangement specifically for EU nationals, which had been gaining traction as a way of restoring EU-UK cooperation and skills transfers.
Meanwhile, the long-expected EU Entry/Exit System (EES) is due for adoption in November. An automated IT system for registering non-EU nationals travelling for a short stay (up to 90 days in 180), it is intended to enhance border security and tracking of most third country nationals. In parallel, the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) will apply for visa-exempt nationals travelling to 30 European countries. UK nationals will have access to this, via a simple online application for a digital waiver certificate costing €7 for a three-year period.
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The information published across our Knowledge Base is correct at the time of going to press.
